CC seeks ninth straight win as Yankees open set with Royals

Baseball Betting Lines

07/22/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CC Sabathia has been nearly unbeatable for the New York Yankees over the past two months. With a matchup against the Kansas City Royals next on tap for the All-Star hurler, that string of success doesn't figure to change.

The Yankees ace sets his sights on claiming a ninth consecutive victory and becoming the American League's first 13-game winner when he takes the mound for the Bronx Bombers in tonight's opener of a four-game series with the Royals from Yankee Stadium.

Sabathia closed out his first half with a sensational eight-start run in which the big left-hander won every one of those outings and yielded three runs or less each time. That streak came to an end when he was reached for four runs (three earned) over seven innings against Tampa Bay this past Friday, but he still managed to secure a no-decision after the Yankees rallied late to come through with a 5-4 victory.

The 2007 AL Cy Young Award recipient has not taken a loss in 10 starts since a 6-4 setback to the crosstown-rival Mets on May 23 and has yet to be beaten at home thus far in 2010. In nine Yankee Stadium starts this season, Sabathia is 6-0 with a 2.53 earned run average and held opposing hitters to a .197 average.

Sabathia has also fared well when facing the perennial also-ran Royals over the years, having compiled a 15-10 record with a 3.27 ERA in 32 lifetime starts against Kansas City. In his lone encounter with the Royals last season, the four-time All-Star spun 7 2/3 shutout innings to deliver a win.

The Yankees have also been on a roll as a team in recent weeks. New York has won 11 of its past 14 contests to improve its major league-best record to 59-34 and extend its lead over second-place Tampa Bay in the AL East standings to 2 1/2 games.

The reigning world champions had lost twice in a three-game span, including a 10-2 rout at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on Tuesday, but bounced back with a 10-6 triumph over the Halos in yesterday's finale of a brief two-game set.

Mark Teixeira led New York's 15-hit attack with a 3-for-5, three-RBI performance at the plate, with Derek Jeter also collecting three hits while scoring three times on the afternoon. The Yankees added three home runs in the win, including a three-run shot by Colin Curtis that was the rookie's first in the majors.

Robinson Cano had a two-run blast and Juan Miranda belted a solo homer in the seventh that gave New York a 7-5 lead. Curtis, replacing an ejected Brett Gardner with an 0-2 count, hammered a Scot Shields offering into the right- field seats later in the inning to give the Yankees a little more breathing room.

"A lot of excitement," said Curtis about his home run. "You see it go out and it's the first one of your career in a big situation and I was really excited."

Javier Vazquez (8-7) benefited from the Yankees' offensive outburst, with the veteran starter obtaining the victory despite allowing five runs on nine hits -- including a pair of homers -- over the first five innings.

New York will try to keep up its winning ways when it takes on a Kansas City club it's often dominated, especially in the Bronx. The Yankees won four of six matchups with the Royals last season and have gone 25-9 in the overall series since the start of the 2006 campaign, with a 14-4 record at home over that stretch.

Kansas City does come in on a high note, however, after taking two of three bouts from visiting Toronto earlier in the week. In Wednesday's rubber match, Zack Greinke tossed eight outstanding innings and Jose Guillen knocked in a pair of runs to lift the Royals to a 5-2 decision.

Guillen had a sacrifice fly in the third inning and an RBI double during a three-run fifth that staked Kansas City to a 5-1 advantage. That was all Greinke (6-9) would need, as the 2009 AL Cy Young Award honoree held the Blue Jays to two runs and struck out nine without walking a batter in an excellent 105-pitch effort.

"[Toronto] takes some really good swings," Greinke said. "You can't let them know what's coming because guys like that, no matter how good your stuff is, if you don't mix it up they're going to hit one eventually."

Billy Butler also had a run-scoring double in the fifth and Brayan Pena finished 3-for-4 with an RBI for the Royals, who'll send out Bruce Chen to oppose Sabathia this evening.

The journeyman left-hander won four of his first six decisions upon being inserted into the Kansas City rotation in late May, but has struggled in consecutive starts that followed a July 3 victory at Anaheim. In his final appearance before the All-Star break, Chen was tagged for three runs on six hits and lasted just 3 1/3 innings in a road loss to the Chicago White Sox on July 9.

The 33-year-old was only slightly better in his first go-around of the second half, permitting four runs and nine hits in a 5 2/3-inning no-decision against Oakland on Saturday. In nine overall starts for the year, Chen has still produced a respectable 4.28 ERA, however.

This will be Chen's first-ever time pitching at the new Yankee Stadium, but he's probably happy to see the old one no longer around. The Panama native went 0-3 in eight games (six starts) at New York's previous home, while allowing 31 runs (25 earned) and 45 hits in only 27 2/3 innings of work.

For his career, Chen is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA over 14 appearances (10 starts) against the Yankees.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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